Risky, yeah. Still, I think Blu-Ray will come out on top. I think Sony learned a lot about their mistakes with Beta HI FI back in the day, and they realized that support from the movie industry is key (JVC garnered more support from movie studios for VHS and won). Blu-Ray currently has the greater level of support, and is technically superior to the HD-DVD format. Also, add-on peripherals for consoles like a dvd player (or CD-ROM anyone?) don't usually sell all that well anyway.
Still, Sony has a whole host of problems still...two unattractive price points, a worldwide launch due to a delay in the Japanese launch, competition from 360 games showing more 'next-gen' oomph, and a very interesting Nintendo console with unique features and a (most likely) consumer-friendly price.