Well, there's, as always, a possibility that it might not be him. If the voice proves NOT to be his real voice, I'd be pretty certain he's dead. If not...well, he made references to events that occured in November, but the earthquake people speculated that he maybe died in happened in October. So if it does prove to be him, he is definitely alive or has a MASSIVE case of OCD and he recorded tapes for every single possible scenario that could've happened in the War.